Historical Patterns Suggest Potential Recovery After 40% YTD Decline

TLDR

Ethereum (ETH) is showing price patterns similar to 2017 and 2020 bull runs, suggesting a potential trend reversal
ETH has fallen below $2,000 since March 11, with technical indicators like Stochastic RSI showing oversold conditions
Multiple analysts point to historical fractals and a 5-year trendline support suggesting an imminent rebound
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) and Bulls and Bears metrics indicate rising buying pressure
The upcoming Pectra upgrade and potential Wall Street expansion could serve as catalysts for ETH recovery

Ethereum (ETH) has struggled throughout 2025, with its market cap dropping more than 40% year-to-date as of March 18. The second-largest cryptocurrency has been trading below the $2,000 mark since March 11, a price level it hasn’t fallen below since December 2023.

Several crypto analysts have identified patterns suggesting ETH may be preparing for a turnaround. Analyst Mister Crypto highlighted similarities between Ethereum’s current price action and the pattern that followed the March 2020 COVID market crash.

That period saw ETH experience a sharp trend reversal to the upside after hitting bottom. The cryptocurrency went on to reach new all-time highs above $4,800 in the subsequent bull market.

Another analyst, Merlijn The Trader, noted that ETH appears to be repeating its historical cycle. This typically involves a capitulation phase before a massive run-up in price.

DON’T BE THE GUY WHO SOLD $ETH AT THE BOTTOM!

Ethereum is repeating its historical cycle.

Capitulation before the biggest run-up yet! pic.twitter.com/Xwfx02qq2W

— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) March 16, 2025

Merlijn pointed to the Luna crash of 2022 as another instance when bearish sentiment surrounding ETH peaked. Following that event, the digital asset quickly overcame market pessimism and experienced a 270% rally.

Technical Analysis

Technical indicators are also suggesting a potential rebound. Analyst TraderPA observed that Ethereum is currently oversold at its present price, with the weekly Stochastic Relative Strength Index (RSI) signaling a possible trend reversal.

Ethereum is oversold.

The weekly Stoch RSI is indicating that a bounce is likely to come soon.

I’m accumulating. pic.twitter.com/wD92xaHSZO

— TraderPA (@Trader1PA) March 17, 2025

The Stochastic RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the relative position of an asset’s current price within its recent price range. When the fast line crosses above the slow line in the oversold zone, it typically signals upward momentum.

On-chain metrics support this outlook. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which measures the flow of liquidity in and out of a cryptocurrency, shows rising buying pressure for ETH.

The daily chart indicates that the CMF reading has stayed above the zero signal line. This suggests that ETH’s price is unlikely to drop toward the $1,500 level, as some have predicted.

From an on-chain perspective, the Bulls and Bears indicator also supports a possible price increase. This metric tracks the activity of addresses buying and selling at least 1% of the total trading volume.

Currently, Ethereum bulls have outnumbered bears, indicating increasing buying pressure. If this trend continues, ETH might avoid another correction.

A five-year trendline further supports the bullish case. Ethereum’s price action over the past five years has consistently respected an ascending support line, which it is currently retesting.

This multi-year support level previously marked major cycle bottoms, including the March 2020 crash and the post-FTX collapse in 2022. Each time ETH has touched this long-term trendline, it has bounced back strongly.

Looking at shorter timeframes, ETH is currently confined within a descending triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart. The price has remained above the horizontal support line, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive.

For ETH to regain momentum, it must stay above $1,861 and retest the $2,227 level. If buying pressure increases, the price could potentially reach $2,520.

Several upcoming catalysts could fuel a recovery. The anticipated Pectra upgrade and Ethereum’s potential Wall Street expansion may drive renewed interest in the asset.

At press time, ETH trades at $1,911, up 0.9% in the past 24 hours.