Cathie Wood's Ark Invest Makes Boldly Bullish Bitcoin Price Prediction

In brief

Ark Invest predicts that Bitcoin could hit a price of as much as $2.4 million per coin by 2030.
At worst, the firm predicts a bear case of around $500,000 in the next five years.

Prominent technology investor Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest released an updated Bitcoin price target, outlining a path for the top cryptocurrency to reach a price of as much as $2.4 million per coin by 2030.

Released on Thursday, the latest report levels up Ark’s previous price predictions from its annual Big Ideas report, which used total addressable markets (TAM) and penetration rate assumptions to determine a price prediction for Bitcoin.

Now, the firm combined its previous predictions with experimental modeling that considers Bitcoin’s “active” supply—which discounts lost or long-held coins.

“Bitcoin’s network liveliness has remained near ~60% since early 2018. In our view, that magnitude of liveliness suggests that ~40% of supply is ‘vaulted,’” the report reads. “On that basis, we arrive at the following price targets, which are roughly 40% higher than our base model, which does not account for Bitcoin active supply and network liveliness”

When accounting for active supply, Ark Invest predicts a bear case—or the most negative view—of around $500,000 per BTC. The bull case? A Bitcoin price of $2.4 million per coin.

Contributing to its potential growth, the report highlights the major inputs for its TAM and penetration rate data, which include its standing as a “digital gold,” institutional investment in spot ETFs, emerging market investors seeking a safe haven asset, and corporate treasuries continuing to diversify with Bitcoin.

Ark is not the only Bitcoin proponent to suggest a price appreciation above $1 million per coin. In September Strategy Chairman and co-founder Michael Saylor predicted the leading crypto asset would reach $13 million per coin over the next 21 years. In January, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said he thinks it will reach the “multiple millions price range” as well.

Bitcoin topped $95,000 for the first time in two months earlier Friday, but still remains down from its all-time peak price of nearly $109,000 set in January.

Edited by Andrew Hayward