Betting markets’ Q1 US GDP forecast flips negative amid tariff turmoil

Bettors on prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are flipping bearish on the US economy. As of April 29, both platforms are predicting that the US will log an economic contraction during the first quarter of 2025 in an upcoming economic data release.

The US has logged positive growth figures every quarter since 2022, and a reversal in that trend could mark the start of a recession.

The pessimistic outlook marks a stark sentiment shift for prediction markets, which had recently anticipated a positive US growth report. On April 29, consensus Q1 US growth estimates on Kalshi, a US derivatives exchange, plunged from around 0.5% to -0.4% in less than 24 hours.

Meanwhile, Polymarket bettors are setting the odds of a US economic contraction in Q1 at around 70%. On April 28, they still had a mostly favorable outlook.

The shift comes one day after Canada, America’s second-largest trading partner, elected Liberal Mark Carney as prime minister. Carney has vowed to take a more hawkish stance in Canada’s ongoing trade war with the US.

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The markets are pegged to the outcome of an April 30 report by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, which issues official measures of America’s gross domestic product (GDP).

The report will provide the clearest view yet into the impact of US President Donald Trump’s controversial trade policies.

Prediction markets work by letting users trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes.

In 2024, event contracts proved to be as reliable as traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s election win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.

Tariff turmoil

On April 2, Trump announced plans to place sweeping tariffs on US imports. The president has since paused the rollout of tariffs on certain countries, but the prospect of a global trade war still looms.

The macroeconomic uncertainty has already weighed on US economic data.

In April, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index — a monthly survey of 250 US-based manufacturers — reported the sharpest declines in activity since 2020. 

Analysts said factories are bracing for the impact of Trump’s tariff plans, which could potentially raise production costs for manufacturers.

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